At Last Quarter's Pace, Archer's Cash Ends 51.4 Days Before the Games

51.4 days short.

June 30 to September 30 is 92 days, and Archer's November 9 release shows cash and short-term investments falling from $1,560.6 million to $1,353.6 million, $207.0 million, or $2.25 million a day. Divide $1,353.6 million by $2.25 million and the cash lasts 601.6 days. With September 30, 2026 as day zero, day 601 is May 23, 2028, and the leftover 0.6 day falls on May 24. LA28 and Olympics.com both put the opening ceremony on July 14, 2028, day 653, and 653 minus 601.6 is 51.4.

Adam Goldstein, in the shareholder letter filed that same morning, called the Games "a little over 600 days" away, and from Monday, November 9, to July 14 is 613 days, a count that starts on the press-release morning rather than on the September 30 balance sheet the cash actually sits on.

A market-survey certificate is not the type certificate

The release leads with a Market Survey Special Airworthiness Certificate for Midnight, "unlocking operations in Los Angeles in coming weeks." 14 CFR 21.195 issues that experimental certificate for market surveys, sales demonstrations, or customer crew training, after an inspection program and at least 50 hours flown, unless the FAA cuts the hours, and 14 CFR 21.191(f) names those three purposes and stops. Goldstein writes that it "allows us to mature to passenger trials and revenue operations under the eIPP and as a part of LA28," a building block toward type certification, so the words doing the legal work are "under the eIPP."

14 CFR 91.319(a) says an experimental aircraft may not be flown for a purpose other than the one on its certificate, and it restricts carrying persons for compensation or hire when the operation needs a Part 119 air-carrier certificate, among other listed cases, which is the shape of a paid fan shuttle and not the sales demonstration 21.195 describes. Midnight's operating limitations are not in the filing, so this piece cannot pretend to have read them.

Same letter, still unresolved: Midnight "is in the fourth and final phase" of type certification, the implementation phase, where compliance findings are still being made, and piloted transition, the hover-to-wing step, is "the final push," the milestone still ahead at year-end, even though the first Midnight reached Los Angeles that morning.

What the $5.1 million was

Revenue was $5.1 million against a $5.0 million cost of revenue, so gross profit is $0.1 million and 0.1 divided by 5.1 is 1.96 percent, and the release assigns those sales to the first engines for Omen, the autonomous aircraft Anduril is building with the EDGE Group, while the letter adds the initial battery packs, none of which is a passenger ticket.

Adjusted EBITDA, a loss of $178.5 million, is what Archer calls the favorable end of a $170 million to $200 million guide. Fourth-quarter guidance is revenue of $5 million to $6 million and an adjusted loss of $185 million to $205 million, and the $195 million midpoint is $16.5 million wider, 16.5 divided by 178.5, or 9.2 percent, a figure Archer will not reconcile to GAAP because stock pay moves with the share price, and guidance is not a cash balance.

One operating loss, two treasuries

Joby's 10-Q, filed November 5, shows a gross profit of $16.070 million, 16.070 divided by 55.089, or 29.2 percent, on an operating loss only $11.1 million smaller than Archer's. The November 4 letter says Blade, the helicopter line Joby already owns, flew more than 44,000 passengers, and that the $211.8 million net loss sits on a $49.8 million non-cash warrant gain. Joby used $16.1 million more operating cash over nine months and still finished $789.95 million richer than on December 31, after a stock sale netting $576.3 million and with $702.6 million of new long-term debt.

Archer's financing contributed $16.8 million across those nine months, and 16.8 divided by 470.1 means financing replaced 3.6 percent of the operating cash that left, while liquid assets fell from $1,964.7 million to $1,353.6 million, $611.1 million in 273 days, or $2.238 million a day, the nine-month row in the table below. Joby's letter says the FAA has indicated that eIPP passengers require substantial TIA testing, with pilot training and conforming-aircraft tests expected in the first half of 2027, stages one through three already complete, Texas and Florida already flown, while Goldstein still dates Los Angeles to the coming weeks.

The daily rate that actually reaches July 14

Multiply 653 by $2.25 million and the current pace consumes $1,469.25 million, so the hole beneath $1,353.6 million is $115.65 million, 7.9 percent of that sum, which is why the empty-account pace in the table is $2.073 million a day. Dropping the $10.0 million investment, or counting only the $164.6 million of operating cash plus $31.7 million of equipment, still lands in June, and 207.0 minus 164.6 minus 31.7 minus 10.0 leaves a $0.7 million residual the release never itemizes.

Archer's 10-Q describes up to 200 aircraft, plus an option for 100, conditioned on FAA certification and further agreement on material terms, which is not revenue. Insitu, which Goldstein calls profitable at more than $200 million a year across 35 countries, with more than 4,000 drones and nearly two million flight hours, stays Boeing's until closing. One of nearly 20 approvals was still out on November 9, and the revenue figure is footnoted to Insitu's own estimates, so the offset he hopes for in 2027 was not cash on September 30.

Executive Order 14307, signed June 6, 2025, and printed in the Federal Register five days later, ends the eIPP three years after the first pilot project becomes operational, unless the Secretary extends it. DOT requested proposals on September 16, 2025. The FAA named eight projects on March 9, 2026. If Joby's September Texas flights start that clock, three years runs past the Games, into 2029. A living program is not a type certificate.

LA28's May 15, 2025 announcement named Archer the official air-taxi provider and described Midnight as a piloted aircraft for up to four passengers on hops of 10 to 20 minutes, including SoFi Stadium and the Coliseum, and Goldstein now says the company has operated Hawthorne Airport for almost a year, started eleven hangars, and flown more than 300 piloted miles on the Bay Area leg. The FAA's note on Florida's first eIPP flights, flown with Joby and Beta, describes demonstration flights testing cargo deliveries and routes over Tampa Bay.

What You Can Do

If a July 2028 ticket is supposed to include a vertiport ride, ask for the operating limitations on the market-survey certificate, and for either a type certificate or an eIPP agreement that names paying passengers. Goldstein puts revenue flights under the pilot program, and Joby says the FAA has tied those passengers to TIA testing in the first half of 2027. Until one of those documents is public, the seat is a plan. Holders and reporters should keep the $178.5 million adjusted loss, the $274.6 million GAAP loss, and the $207 million cash drop in separate columns. A filed financing, a closed Insitu deal with readable cash, or a quarter under $2.073 million a day is what would erase the 51.4 days. Restricted cash of $18.4 million sits beside the $1,353.6 million, not inside it.

Limitations

This arithmetic does not prove Archer misses the Games or fails to raise. It freezes one quarter, treasuries get refilled, the $10 million investment and the $0.7 million residual may not recur, and adjusted EBITDA is not a withdrawal. Missing here: Midnight's operating limitations, Joby's quarterly operating-cash line, Insitu's statements, and any FAA stamp that September 2026 is when the three-year eIPP clock "became operational." Archer's four phases and Joby's five stages stay as each company printed them. October's cash is unknown, 44 days already sit between September 30 and this piece, and Hawthorne plus the hangars are not modeled as income.

The Strongest Case Against This Analysis

Grant the optimistic reading at full strength. $1.35 billion, an aircraft just delivered to Los Angeles, more than 300 miles through airspace shared with three international airports, and one approval left on a deal that would make Boeing the largest shareholder and bring a drone unit sized above $200 million a year to offset Midnight's spend, is a company mid-build. Part of the decline bought hangars. A sale the size of Joby's $576.3 million offering would cover the $115.65 million hole several times, Joby's similar operating loss is not ending in May because Joby raised, early eIPP flights are what the pilot program was built to fly, and the Games are a date in a letter rather than a covenant. Freezing one quarter confuses a chart with a forecast.

That reading can be right about a future refill and still leave September 30 alone. Financing over nine months was $16.8 million against $470.1 million of operating cash use, the Boeing deal has not closed, and Joby's $2,197.9 million exists because Joby sold stock and borrowed $702.6 million, while still parking eIPP passengers behind 2027 testing. At $2.25 million a day, $1,353.6 million does not reach July 14. Expecting a raise is not cash on the balance sheet.

The Bottom Line

Archer closed September with $1,353.6 million after spending it down by $2.25 million a day, a rate that stops on May 24, 2028, 51.4 days before the ceremony. The quarter's public record is a market-survey certificate, $5.1 million of defense revenue at a 1.96 percent gross margin, and a $274.6 million GAAP loss. The chart moves if the next quarter's liquid assets fall by less than $2.073 million a day, or if a financing shows up in a filing first.

Until one of those is on paper, 51.4 days is the gap.

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